Week two of the post-holiday session delivered the opposite of week one. Four of five benchmark metals moved more than 1% on Monday in three different directions - tin surged, copper and zinc firmed, nickel and stainless eased, aluminium stayed below the holiday close. The September PMI cost-to-price scissor at 6.8 percentage points is still open.
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Material Watch - Week of October 12, 2026
| Indicator | Value | Unit | vs. Oct 8 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tin front-month futures | 398,050 | CNY / tonne | +6,880 / +1.76% | Supply tightness, electronics pull |
| Zinc front-month futures | 26,220 | CNY / tonne | +370 / +1.43% | Smelter discipline holding |
| Copper front-month futures | 110,910 | CNY / tonne | +1,300 / +1.19% | Brass & electrical pulled higher |
| Aluminium front-month futures | 23,610 | CNY / tonne | +230 / +0.98% | Below the holiday close, slow recovery |
| Nickel front-month futures | 118,430 | CNY / tonne | −880 / −0.74% | Stainless rebar still soft |
| Stainless front-month futures | 13,490 | CNY / tonne | −60 / −0.44% | 304 / 316L buying on-need |
| Hot-rolled coil (most-traded contract) | 3,261 | CNY / tonne | +10 / +0.31% | Iron-ore discipline carries |
| Aluminium A00, East China spot | 23,810 | CNY / tonne | +50 / +0.21% | Spot lagging futures, still cheap vs Sep 28 |
| Copper #1, Yangtze spot | 112,160 | CNY / tonne | +400 / +0.36% | Brass mills and PCB shops bidding |
| Aluminium ingot inventory, national | 646,000 | tonnes | +4,000 wk | Post-holiday build continuing |
| Aluminium billet inventory, national | 192,000 | tonnes | +32,500 vs Sep 28 | Extrusion downstream is slow |
Compiled from published spot assessments for the week ending October 10, 2026, plus front-month futures print for October 12, 2026. USD conversions use the prevailing weekly reference rate of approximately ¥6.69/USD.
The 6.8-Point Scissor Did Not Close
September's official manufacturing PMI printed 50.1% - back above expansion for the first time since July. Raw-material input price sub-index rose to 60.8% (12-month high), factory-gate ex-factory price sub-index rose to 54.0%. The gap is 6.8 percentage points - also a 12-month high.
That gap is the "cost-to-price scissor." When input prices lead selling prices by more than about 4 points, machine shops can absorb the gap for a quarter or two, but rarely for a third. The follow-on is higher quotes, shortened validity windows, or both.
Three reads from week two that should change your Q4 quote strategy
Tin and copper are not slowing down. Tin up 1.76% and copper up 1.19% in a single session means every brass and bronze part on your Q4 BOM is repricing higher today. Brass C360 and copper C110 bare-stock quotes that came in this morning are already 1–2% above where they sat last week.
Aluminium and stainless are going different ways. Aluminium A00 is still below the holiday close, and stainless front-month futures are at a four-week low. If your part can run on 6061-T6 instead of 304, this week's quote is the cheapest you will see before year-end.
Inventory build is keeping aluminium pinned. National aluminium ingot inventory rose 4,000 tonnes last week; aluminium billet is up 32,500 tonnes versus the end of September. The extrusion channel is still slow.
Material Cost Benchmarks For CNC Buyers
Cost line a machine shop actually bills, expressed as USD per kg of finished part material. Cycle-time multipliers are folded in: 6061-T6 takes 1.0× the cycle, 304 stainless 2.2×, Ti-6Al-4V 5–8×.
| Material | Form | USD / kg finished stock | Cycle-time factor | Direction this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum 6061-T6 | Plate, bar, billet | 4–7 | 1.0× | Flat-to-soft |
| Aluminum 7075-T6 | Plate, bar, billet | 11–18 | 1.3× | Flat |
| Carbon steel 1018 | Plate, bar | 3–6 | 1.5× | HRC +¥10, modest |
| Carbon steel 1045 | Plate, bar | 3–6 | 1.5× | HRC +¥10, modest |
| Alloy steel 4140 | Round, hex | 4–7 | 1.7× | HRC +¥10, modest |
| Stainless steel 304 | Plate, bar, tube | 7–11 | 2.2× | Front-month -0.44%, soft |
| Stainless steel 316 / 316L | Plate, bar, tube | 9–15 | 2.8× | Nickel-linked, soft |
| Stainless 17-4PH (H900) | Round, flat | 12–18 | 2.5× | Flat |
| Titanium Gr2 (CP-Ti) | Plate, bar, billet | 30–45 | 3.0× | Sponge -1.5%, soft |
| Titanium Gr5 (Ti-6Al-4V) | Plate, bar, billet | 33–66 | 5–8× | Aerospace still firm |
| Copper C110 / C122 | Bar, plate | 15–18 | 1.4× | +1.19% Cu base |
| Copper C101 / C102 (OFE) | Bar, sheet | 16–19 | 1.4× | +1.19% Cu base |
| Brass C360 (free-machining) | Round, hex, bar | 11–14 | 0.9× | +1.19% Cu base |
| Brass C464 (naval) | Plate, bar, tube | 12–15 | 1.0× | +1.19% Cu base |
| Bronze C932 / C954 | Bar, plate | 13–17 | 1.3× | Cu + Sn both up |
USD ranges reflect October 10 spot assessments and the prevailing weekly reference rate of approximately ¥6.69/USD. Cycle-time factor is the multiplier on aluminium 6061 baseline.
Machining Rate Benchmarks - China, Q4 2026
Rates are quoted inclusive of machine time, operator, and standard overhead. Material, setup, special tooling, finishing, inspection and certification are billed separately. Validity is being shortened across the industry, so lock quotes in writing.
| Process | China benchmark (USD / hr) | Tolerance band | Best-fit application |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-axis CNC milling | 35–50 | ±0.05 mm | Brackets, housings, plates |
| 3+2 axis CNC milling | 45–65 | ±0.03 mm | Prismatic parts with angled features |
| 4-axis CNC milling | 50–75 | ±0.025 mm | Cylindrical parts, side features |
| 5-axis CNC milling | 60–90 | ±0.02 mm | Impellers, blisks, complex housings |
| CNC turning (lathe) | 30–45 | ±0.025 mm | Shaft, bushing, threaded parts |
| Swiss-type turning | 70–110 | ±0.01 mm | Small precision parts, long aspect ratio |
| Wire EDM | 35–55 | ±0.005 mm | Hardened alloy steel, intricate shapes |
| Sinker EDM | 45–70 | ±0.01 mm | Mold cavities, complex internal features |
| Surface grinding | 30–45 | ±0.005 mm flatness | Precision flat reference surfaces |
| Cylindrical grinding | 30–45 | ±0.005 mm roundness | Precision shafts, bearing seats |
Single-shift operation. Double-shift and dedicated-line rates can be 15–25% lower. Prototype (1–10 pc) rates carry a 30–60% setup premium over production (100+ pc) rates.
What The Scissor Means For Your Quote Window
Lock aluminium, stainless and titanium work now. Aluminium A00 is still below the holiday close and stainless front-month futures are at a four-week low. National aluminium inventory is still building. The window for cheap 6061-T6 and 304 stock is the rest of October. Re-quote brass and copper work. Tin +1.76% in a single session means every brass C360 and bronze C932 part is repricing - the quote that comes back this week is 2–3% above last week's. Push the tolerance review. Standard ±0.05 mm runs on fast feeds; tight ±0.025 mm runs at 60–70% of that feed; ultra-tight ±0.01 mm adds 30–50% to the machining cost.
Want material-by-material cost benchmarks for your RFQ? We will send a side-by-side cost table for 6061-T6, 7075-T6, 1018, 1045, 4140, 304, 316, 17-4PH, Gr2, Gr5, copper, brass and bronze on your part geometry.
Tolerance And Finish - Where The Hidden Cost Lives
| Tolerance | Surface finish | Cost premium | Typical use |
|---|---|---|---|
| ±0.05 mm | Ra 1.6 μm | Base | Fixtures, jigs, structural brackets |
| ±0.025 mm | Ra 0.8 μm | +15–25% | Mechanical assemblies, bearing seats |
| ±0.01 mm | Ra 0.4 μm | +30–50% | Aerospace structural, semiconductor |
| ±0.005 mm | Ra 0.2 μm | +80–150% | Optical, medical implants, metrology |
Finishing premium reference. Anodizing Type II adds 8–12%, Type III hardcoat 18–30% - both quote on surface area, not weight. Passivation (ASTM A967) for stainless 304 / 316 adds 5–10% and is mandatory for medical, food-grade and marine. Plating (EN Ni, Zn, Sn) adds 10–25%; tin plate is the line to watch this week because the underlying tin print is up 1.76% and pass-through is happening weekly.
Procurement Playbook - Q4 2026
RFQ on 6061-T6 or 304 stainless. You are in the cheap window. Close the quote this week, lock the material spot, book a production slot for November or early December. Inventory build on the upstream side will keep 6061 soft into November; 304 has a bit further to run on nickel weakness.
RFQ on brass C360, bronze C932, copper C110. Re-quote. Tin +1.76% in a single session means every brass and bronze part is repricing - the quote that comes back this week is 2–3% above the one you got last week. If your part can run on aluminum 6061 with a Type II anodize instead of brass with electroless nickel, the cost difference is meaningful and the lead time is shorter.
RFQ on titanium Gr5 or 4140 / 17-4PH. Hold. Aerospace and defence demand keeps the qualified Gr5 line firm. For 4140 and 17-4PH, the call-out that matters is heat-treat - pre-hardened 4140 (28–32 HRC) machines fast; 17-4PH H900 adds a separate op and adds 12–18% to the cost.
CNC Part Specifications
| Form | Material capability | Size envelope | Tolerance band | Surface finish | Certification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milled parts, 3-axis | Al 6061/7075, carbon steel 1018/1045, alloy steel 4140, SS 304/316/17-4PH, Ti Gr2/Gr5, copper, brass, bronze | Up to 1,200 × 800 × 500 mm | ±0.05 mm standard; ±0.01 mm on request | As-machined, bead-blast, anodize, plating | EN 10204 3.1; CMM report on request |
| Milled parts, 5-axis | Same material range | Up to Ø 800 × 500 mm | ±0.02 mm standard; ±0.005 mm on request | As-machined, polished, anodize, plating | EN 10204 3.1; CMM + dimensional report |
| Turned parts, lathe | Same material range plus free-machining brass C360 | Ø 3 to 300 mm; up to 1,000 mm length | ±0.025 mm standard; ±0.01 mm on request | As-turned, centerless ground, polished, plated | EN 10204 3.1 |
| Swiss-turned parts | Same material range; 17-4PH, 304, C360 preferred | Ø 1 to 32 mm; up to 350 mm length | ±0.01 mm standard; ±0.005 mm on request | As-machined, electropolished, passivated | EN 10204 3.1; medical-grade documentation |
| Grinding | Hardened alloy steel, 17-4PH | Surface: 600 × 250 mm; cylindrical: Ø 200 × 600 mm | ±0.005 mm flatness / roundness | Mirror, lapped | EN 10204 3.1; surface finish report |
| Wire EDM | Any conductive material in our range | Up to 400 × 300 × 250 mm | ±0.005 mm | As-cut, light bead, polished | EN 10204 3.1 |
| Surface treatment (subcontract) | All materials in our range | Up to 1,500 × 800 × 600 mm (anodizing) | Anodize Type II/III, passivation ASTM A967, EN Ni / Zn / Sn / Ag plating | Clear, black, custom colour; matte to bright | Mil-A-8625, ASTM A967, thickness report, salt-spray on request |
